The Likelihood of a Successful Zombie Apocalypse
Yesterday when I was walking home from work I saw a some older dude lurching about in the road in what I can only describe as a “zombie-esque” fashion. Now very likely this individual was not a zombie, I’d be more willing to bet that he may have had some mental illness or even further more willing to bet that he was drunk (yes this is judgmental but if he doesn’t want to be judged then he shouldn’t lurch about in streets during the day). But because of his zombie-like movements I got to thinking about how likely it would be for a zombie apocalypse to occur if an actually case of a zombie or zombies happened. I’m not saying how likely is it that zombies will someday occur (the answer is obviously 37.2% likely) but if and when said zombies do occur how likely is it to cause a major, potentially apocalyptic, event?
To figure this I think we have to take into consideration a number of factors. I believe some important areas to consider are as follows:
- What causes the zombies? The cause of the existence of zombies (or zombie like beings) would obviously play a huge roll in how the zombies are able to spread. If say the zombies come about like in “Night of the Living Dead” (and all other George A. Romero zombie movies) then we could have corpses digging themselves out of the ground all over the world. Considering the number of dead bodies all over the place this could cause quite a number of zombies suddenly being present which of course would greatly increase the chance of an all out apocalypse. But if the cause of zombies is an isolated infection case then the spread may be much hindered. This brings me to my next point.
- How does the zombieness spread? In almost all zombie movies and literature the infection can be spread through a person being bitten by a zombie. In “28 Days Later” (and its sequel “28 Weeks Later“) the infection (which could be argued not to me true zombie because the people are essentially still alive, just blood -thirsty and crazed with the Rage Virus) can also be passed through infected blood or saliva without being bitten. The infection type could greatly determine how fast zombies are able to spread. If Romero’s ”all dead bodies turn into zombies” were to occur then anybody who died for whatever reason would become a zombie thus making quite a lot of zombies. If the infection must be directly transmitted from a zombie to a non-zombie then said infection might be more controllable. Then again it could spread as an airborne infection or via a device like cell phones (Stephen King’s novel Cell) and that too would probably be really hard to fight.
- Where does the zombie outbreak start? If we have a Romero outbreak of zombies then we likely have zombies all over the place. This would be bad. If zombies come about from an infection of some type where does this infection first occur; some isolated facility far away from large human populations or right in the middle of a city? Obviously if zombies start occurring in an area of dense population there will be a greater probability of a spread of zombie infection. On the other hand an isolated incident will provide more time for preparation and control.
- What type of zombies are we dealing with? I give you two basic choices; slow or fast? If the zombies are the traditional lurching slow corpses then I would argue that they would probably be reasonably manageable as long as one didn’t encounter too many at a time. However if we are dealing with the “28 Days Later” type of infected I’d be a lot more concerned. Fast zombie-esque beings are fucking scary and seem a lot more dangerous than a shambling corpse.
- How do people react to the zombie outbreak? If people act like idiots when the zombies arrive (like they tend to in most zombie movies) then we will have some problems. On the other hand if people keep cool, try and play it smart, and organize responsibly it will be much easier to defend against the zombies encountered. Also we should consider whether or not the government/military takes action in controlling the outbreak or if they act like a bunch of douche bags and try and cover the thing up until it is too late.
Okay, that is about all I’ve got right now. I’m sure there are other factors I’ve over looked but that’s okay, if y’all think of any drop a comment. You may scoff at the idea that zombies will ever occur but it is the people like myself who are willing to consider the possibility who are more likely to survive should zombies suddenly appear.

It seems like it’s a running theme in zombie movies I’ve seen (and I admit, I haven’t seen too many) that the main characters at some point or another try to get to an island to escape the impending doom.
This could result in 1) not making it to a boat, 2) making it to the island and being greeted there by more zombies, or 3) making it and living happily ever after in isolation (or until zombies learn to swim).
So maybe as a sidenote to the “location” bullet, you could say proximity to an island could affect the success of zombies taking over. At least that would give the living a fighting chance.
Ahhh, yes, islands. Good call. Also if the Zombies start off on an island, like say Haiti (because of all the vodoo jazz) then they would be further isolated until, as you said, they learn how to swim.
I would love a small G.A.R style zombie infestation. Think how much fun killing stupid, slow zombies would be. You could get in a car and play mailbox baseball, but instead of mailboxes, you would be hitting zombie heads.
Other than that though, 28 Days Later Zombies scare the shit out of me and we would all be thoroughly fucked if that happened.
Good Luck to all the zombie killers.
In The Alphabet of Manliness by Maddox the letter Z stands for zombies and Maddox says that every guy secretly wishes for a 24 hour zombie period so that we could just go to town with awesome badass zombie killings.